Duma approves Russia’s exit from nuclear weapons testing treaty, escalating tensions with the West

Duma, the Russian Parliament, has approved the country’s withdrawal from the treaty banning nuclear weapons testing. The measure, which was commissioned by President Vladimir Putin, aims to maintain the threat of nuclear weapons against the West since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Putin has alternated between soberly stating that he would never use the bomb against rivals, only to later remind the West that Russia possesses the largest nuclear arsenal in the world.

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty was ready in 1996, but only 36 of the 44 states involved in the negotiations ratified it, including the United States. Thus, it never entered into force. The 1963 agreement, which bans all explosions except underground ones, remains in effect. Moscow ratified the 1996 treaty, but Washington did not. With both powers holding almost 90% of the world’s 12,500 nuclear warheads, recent weeks have seen rumors of a possible new test by Russia as a signal to the West not to escalate the supply of weapons to Ukraine.

During a conference, Putin mentioned that scientists were advocating for tests of their new weapons, such as the intercontinental super missile Sarmat. He claimed ignorance but suggested that the law would need to change, leaving the issue for the lawmakers to decide. Nothing in Putin’s political system happens by chance, making it clear that the ban was only a matter of time. The measure passed unanimously with 415 votes in favor and 0 against. Now, Senate approval is the only thing required for Putin to gain an additional tool in his deterrence dispute with the West.

The Kremlin claims that, despite the legal change, they have no plans to conduct a new nuclear test. Their most recent test occurred in 1990 during the Soviet Union period, while the US conducted one in 1992. However, during Putin’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Wednesday, the Russian president complained about the US sending ATACMS ballistic missiles to Kiev. These missiles were used for the first time on Tuesday in attacks against two helicopter bases in the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine. Initial reports suggest a devastating attack, with many helicopters destroyed.

The US had avoided providing these missiles during a year of negotiations, fearing they would excessively provoke the Kremlin, which accuses them of waging a proxy war in Ukraine. The number of troops in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States has increased 2.5 times since the Russian invasion in February 2022, with more than half of them being American forces, according to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during a meeting with his Belarusian counterparts.

On the other side of the nuclear battlefield, the United States has continued its campaign to pressure the North Korean regime, supported by Putin and Xi, in the dispute with South Korea over the supremacy of the divided peninsula. In July, the US sent a submarine armed with nuclear missiles to a South Korean port for the first time since the Cold War. On Tuesday, they made a historic landing in Cheongju with a strategic B-52 bomber after a flight over Seoul, 110 km away. This specific B-52 model had small metallic fins on the side, indicating that it is certified for nuclear attack, according to expert Hans Kristensen. It is a clear signal to the North Korean dictatorship.

President Joe Biden has strengthened nuclear cooperation with South Korea, creating a data-sharing committee in case of war with North Korea. However, the US has no plans to deploy weapons on the peninsula as they did during the Cold War. Such a move would be seen as directed towards China, which shares its border and supports North Korea, as well as Russia, which has strengthened its ties with Kim, including a visit to Putin at a space base.